Southern Baptist Convention Stats Reveal 20-Year Decline

The Southern Baptist Convention is holding its annual meeting this week in Phoenix, Arizona. Prior to the this yearly national gathering of Southern Baptists, Lifeway Research (SBC) released a report showing that baptisms declined again in 2010.  This marked the eighth time in a decade that baptisms have declined with the 2010 figure being the lowest number of baptisms since the 1950s.

Lifeway Research also noted that the SBC’s total membership also dropped for the fourth consecutive year.  Thom S. Rainer, president and CEO of Lifeway, issued a call for Southern Baptists to “see the urgency of the moment” and receive these numbers “with a broken spirit and a God-given determination to reach people for Christ.”

USA Today published an article on the Lifeway report with the headline Nation’s largest Protestant group faces ‘decline’.

Yet, the Southern Baptist Convention has been declining for 20-years now.  The decline the SBC is facing is certainly not new.

To see the numbers used to construct this graph, click here.

Following World War II, the Southern Baptist Convention experienced great growth especially in its percentage of the United States population.  As this graph reveals, the SBC enjoyed a 30.098% increase in its share of the U.S. population.  In 1950, Southern Baptists comprised 4.679 percent of the U.S. population.  By 1980 that number had grown to 6.087.

For many years, Southern Baptist conservatives/fundamentalists have claimed that liberalism crept into the SBC in the decades following World War II.  Their response to this supposed era of liberalism was a “Conservative Resurgence.”  This resurgence which coincided with Ronald Reagan’s own conservative resurgence (dubbed the “Rise of Baptist Republicanism” by conservative activist Oran Smith) was described as a “Battle for the Bible.”

During this “Battle for the Bible” or “Southern Baptist Controversy” which kick-started the summer of 1979 and spanned the 1980s, the SBC’s share of the U.S. population increased by .657 percent.

Following this Conservative Resurgence or Fundamentalist Takeover, the Southern Baptist Convention has enjoyed a 14.572% decrease in its share of the U.S. population. In 1990, Southern Baptists comprised 6.127% of the total U.S. population.  By 2010 that number had declined to 5.254%.  Southern Baptists last comprised this percentage of the U.S. population in the 1950s.

There are of course many different conclusions that can reached about these stats.  However, one certainty that this graph reveals – as even Lifeway’s own research confirms (see Ed Stetzer’s analysis) – is that the Southern Baptist Convention has been suffering statistically-speaking for many years now.  Indeed, the SBC’s four-year numerical decline does not tell the entire story.

Although, I must admit that this graph tells an interesting story in the context of Southern Baptist history!