Here’s to Barack Obama, next president of these United States. Great endorsement from Gov. Janet Napolitano (D-AZ) whom I suspect is on the Obama shortlist for VP running mate if he gets nominated. I hope a President Obama will appoint Bill Richardson as Sec. of State. Richardson is young enough to run again for pres. and will get more exposure and foreign policy influence as Sec. of State than in a VP situation. (And wouldn’t be nice to a Sec. of State who is bi-lingual, Latino, a former ambassador and hostage negotiator who stood up to Saddam Hussein, and who, as Gov. of NM, prevented Bush from war with North Korea, negotiating a phased end of N.K.’s nuclear weapons program??)

My reasons as a former Edwards supporter for endorsing Obama are here:
http://kyfriedpolitics.blogspot.com/2008/01/barack-obama-for-us-president.html

Feminist reasons to oppose Hillary the Hawk are here:
http://kyfriedpolitics.blogspot.com/2008/01/frances-kissling-on-why-shes-still-not.html

A young university student’s feminist response to Gloria Steinem is here: http://www.commondreams.org/archive/2008/01/10/6288/

The Bradley effect is real, but I think it was only one factor in Clinton’s victory. Look the media overplayed Obama’s chances. It was never going to be a double-digit victory. After all, 2 weeks earlier Clinton was way ahead. She had been leading in NH for a year and had the better ground game. That was THE important factor. (The media also misrepresented the crowds–Clinton was drawing equal or near-equal size crowds.)

The independents deciding that the media was right led them to vote for McCain. The students came out for Obama, but not in the % sas with Iowa. And the economy helped: People remembered Bill Clinton pulling people out of the last Bush recession. (Forgetting that the Clintonian trade policies have helped Bush II create economic chaos.) Then, the piling on of the media and Clinton’s tearing up–as well as her switching from set speeches to long open fora –humanized her. And the apparent misogynist notes from the media created a backlash from women. It wasn’t any one thing.

But post NH, there have been plenty of racially coded messages from the Clinton camp and more from supporters. They may come to regret the endorsement from NY Attorney General Andrew Cuomo who referred to Barack Obama as a “shuck and jive” act. This is alienating the longtime strength of the Clintons with African-Americans–and could cause them to lose in SC. (Nevada will be close. Neither side has strong ties to the Latino community which is key there. And there is some racism among Latinos–as with all groups. We’ll see. The Culinary Workers Union endorsement helps Obama, but Clinton’s door to door campaigning will help her. It’ll be close. Drop out John Edwards.)

I doubt the assessment that we’ll know whether the effect is real after S.C. 50% of the D’s who vote in primaries there are African-American; it seems highly unlikely that they would lie to pollsters as to how they’re going to vote, and I don’t think most white South Carolinians would lie to pollsters if they weren’t going to vote for Obama. There’s not as much social pressure there to support an Ivy League-educated, African-American Yankee.

The thing that’s going to determine this is how Edwards’ supporters break.

Interesting observation I heard:

The Iowa Caucus may have had a reverse-Bradley effect for Obama, since the voting was not secret, but in neighborhood gatherings where the voters’ actions were in the view of others.

I think the NH debate, the perception that John and Obama were being a little “mean” and the tear helped. Clearly women responded in a positive way towards HRC.

If the Bradley Effect is real, we’ll know after South Carolina I think. Nonetheless, NH was a big win for Hillary but she’s got a real fight on her hands.

I prefer Edwards. But it’s just not going to happen. I wish he would drop out or that his supporters would realize the reality of the situation and throw their support Obama’s way. The under 40 crowd and especially 20-somethings just isn’t energized by Hillary’s candidacy. She’s more of the same and I think most people, Republican and Democrat alike, want something fresh and new.

Do you not think that HRC’s tearful plea moved some voters?